Myanmar shakeup unlikely to pave way for Suu Kyi release

August 27, 2003 - 0:0
BANGKOK -- A shakeup among Myanmar's ruling generals after months of internal wrangling is unlikely to produce a quick end to the crisis over detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, analysts said on Tuesday.

Junta leader General Than Shwe gave up his post as prime minister to General Khin Nyunt, the powerful head of military intelligence, in a cabinet shuffle that saw five aging ministers retire, state media said on Monday.

The changes give Khin Nyunt, 64 and the junta's third most senior general, day-to-day control of the impoverished Southeast Asian country struggling under fresh Western sanctions. Than Shwe retained the key posts of chairman of the ruling military body -- the State Peace and Development Council -- and commander-in-chief of the armed forces.

Maung Aye, commander of Myanmar's Army and the council's second most senior general, was not affected.

"It's difficult to see how this will produce any real change as long as the top three in the regime remain as before," a Bangkok-based Western diplomat told Reuters.

"My feeling is that (Suu Kyi) will be released fairly soon, but I don't know if Khin Nyunt's appointment should be read as preparing the ground for that," he added.

The military has ruled Myanmar since a 1962 coup and rejected a 1990 landslide election victory by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD). Yangon has so far ignored an unprecedented rebuke from its Southeast Asian neighbors and growing Western outrage over Suu Kyi, detained since a May 30 clash between her supporters and pro-government youths.

The junta is holding Suu Kyi, 58, at a secret location -- for her own safety, it says -- and has pledged to free her when the political situation cools. ----------------Shades of Grey---------------

"I expect the appointment of Khin Nyunt will ease some pressure from Western countries which see him as a reformer," Chayachoke Chulasiriwongs, a Myanmar analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, told Thai radio.

But, while diplomats consider Khun Nyunt more accessible than his harderline colleagues, he is believed to favor only minor political concessions aimed at ensuring the junta's long-term survival.

"He speaks good English and for that reason people give what he has to say more weight," said the Western diplomat.

"But in Burmese context, you are taking about shades of grey and there are no vast differences among them. I don't see any major shakeup soon".

A statement published in Myanmar's official newspapers on Tuesday said Khin Nyunt was promoted "in order to effectively carry out the functions and duties of the government in the interest of the state and the entire people".

Reaction was muted on the streets of Yangon.

"We don't care who rules the country as long as we can live peacefully," said taxi driver Then Oo. "The most powerful are the same people no matter what position they hold now".

Myanmar watchers say Khin Nyunt was close to the late dictator Ne Win and played a key role in suppressing pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 when troops opened fire in Yangon, killing many civilians.

The ex-British colony, formerly known as Burma, is feeling the pinch of tighter sanctions by the United States and European Union since Suu Kyi's arrest. Key donor Japan has frozen new aid.